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Stock Market Crash
08/14/2008 - By ANTHONY GREEN
The first step to creating that composite model to see what the future may look like is to glance over past bear markets. Youll find this of great help as reference material in the years to come (and especially for all the bear markets ahead).
No single past model exactly applies to today. My list begins in 1900, because this was the first bear market after Dow created the DJIA in 1897.
Panics and crashes from earlier times also have things they can teach us, but prior to 1897 market statistics are vague, so anything earlier can only be referred to in a general sense:
1900 DJIA declined 31.8%. Duration of bear market: 12 months. Crash came in December 1899. Bear market low in June 1900.
1903 DJIA declined 37.7%. Duration: 10 months. Crash occurred in November 1902. Bear market low in September 1903.
1907 DJIA declined 45.0%. Duration: 10 months. Had two crash phases, the first in February (DJIA fell 21.8% in this first phase); rallied in March and April. The second crash was July to November, a 4-month fall known historically as the Panic of 1907. A bull market started at once after the second crash. Stocks lost almost 50% (many much more) from the bull peak. A further fall was prohibited by the fact that business did not fall much further after the October economic collapse. Business coasted in a top area for 8 months after the start of the first market crash, then, suddenly and without an alarm, plunged down almost vertically in the midst of the second market crash. Business indicators hit bottom 3 months later, stayed there for 4 months, then began a healthy recovery:
1909 DJIA declined 26.2%. Started in November 1909, with the crash phase in February 1910. The bear market low came in July 1910. Duration: 8 months.
1912 DJIA declined 23.5%. Duration of bear market: 26 months. Crash came in June 1913, but bear had started in November 1912. Bear low came in December 1914. Since the stock market was closed for 4 months in 1914 by the war, a true picture of the decline here is impossible. One source says it was 36.3%. But Ill take the more conservative published DJIA figures as my base.
1917 DJIA declined 40.1%. Duration of bear market: 13 months. Crash phase came in December 1916. Hit bear market low in December 1917. Turn your 1000 USD into 1,00,000 USD with our stock investing and share tips. Learn how to invest in the stock market trading at http://www.2stocktrading.com.
